
The Midwestern Regional Climate Center says much of the Eastern Corn Belt still faces moderate to extreme drought, with precipitation 6 to 8 inches below normal despite recent wet snow. The drought is the fourth consecutive year of rapid-onset drought in the region, and forecasts call for below-normal temperatures and near-normal precipitation.
Ongoing drought in Illinois, Indiana and Ohio raises the risk of reduced 2026 yields, supporting feed grain prices on weather-risk premium.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, CORN moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, SOY moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.