
Crop Watchers flagged weather and dryness as their top concern heading into 2025 amid low prices. Drought covered 75% of the U.S. Midwest in late October, the largest share for that time of year since Drought Monitor records began in 2000.
Dry soils and multi-year moisture deficits raise the risk of lower yields in 2025, which could support corn and soybean prices if the dryness persists.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.