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Brazilian forecasters expect extreme weather to persist into 2025, with prolonged droughts, intense rainfall and above-average temperatures. Rio Grande do Sul is the most vulnerable state, and a weak La Niña is expected to last until February.
Drought and excess rain in southern Brazil threaten soybean and corn yields, which could tighten export supplies and support prices. The risk is moderate because the La Niña is expected to be mild and short-lived.
valorinternational.globo.comMarcos FantinDec 27, 2024After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
