Dry weather and record heat covered much of the Midwest in late September, with Iowa the main exception after heavy showers. The U.S. corn crop was 51% mature by September 24 versus a 64% average, and topsoil shortages affected large parts of Illinois and Michigan.
Nearly half of Iowa and Illinois pastures were rated poor to very poor.
Delayed maturity and dryness raise the risk of lower yields and drier grain at harvest, while poor pastures may push cattle and feed demand higher. These conditions support corn and feed prices.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 79 past bullish weather events, Feeder Cattle moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.7%), and +1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.