Corteva's outlook notes that drought forecasts for summer never materialized, and most of the Corn Belt shows no drought. Drought persists only in parts of Nebraska, Kansas, and the Dakotas.
Heat spells were brief and occurred before pollination, so yield impact was limited.
Adequate moisture and limited heat damage support strong corn and soybean yields. This keeps supply ample and weighs on prices.
After 357 past bearish weather events, Corn moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 363 past bearish weather events, Soybeans moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -2.5% to +1.1%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.