
Scattered showers crossed the Great Lakes and middle Mississippi Valley, causing brief fieldwork delays but no major change to the Midwest drought. The soybean harvest reached 81% by Oct.
20, the fastest pace since 2010, while soil moisture shortages are hindering winter wheat planting on the Plains.
Dry soils slowing winter wheat establishment can trim expected HRW production, giving modest support to wheat prices, while the fast soybean harvest adds near-term supply.
After 322 past bullish weather events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.5% to +3.2%), and +1.0% over 20.
After 324 past neutral weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.7%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.