The Texas AgriLife crop report says the High Plains, West Texas and East Texas are in extreme drought to abnormally dry, with little significant precipitation since September. A strong La Niña is expected to bring warmer, drier-than-average winter conditions to the state.
Dry soils across Texas raise the risk of reduced winter wheat and sorghum acreage and yields in the southern Plains, which can support hard red winter wheat and sorghum prices.
After 322 past bullish weather events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.5% to +3.2%), and +1.0% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.