
Lingering drought is a concern across much of the US, with the worst soil moisture deficits in the western Corn Belt and up to 73% of Illinois abnormally dry or worse. Winter wheat faces winterkill risk due to low snow cover.
Low river levels on the Mississippi and Illinois are heading toward multi-month lows.
Low river levels threaten barge logistics and drought threatens winter wheat output, both of which can lift freight costs and support grain prices.
After 322 past bullish weather events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.5% to +3.2%), and +1.0% over 20.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.