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The U.S. Drought Monitor shows 43% of the Midwest in moderate to severe drought and another 25% abnormally dry as of March 6, 2025. Winter precipitation was below normal in Minnesota, Iowa, southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois, and drought is expected to persist in several western areas while improving in parts of Michigan, Indiana, Illinois and Wisconsin.
Low subsoil moisture in the western Corn Belt raises the risk of yield shortfalls for corn and soybeans, which supports feed grain prices if dryness persists into summer.
drought.govMar 6, 2025After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
