
The U.S. Drought Monitor shows drought affecting 40% of the Midwest, with 78% of Wisconsin in drought, including a small area of exceptional drought (D4) for the first time since 2000. A heat wave with heat index values over 100°F and little rain is worsening conditions, and the Upper Mississippi is below low-flow thresholds.
Drought threatens corn and soybean yields during key growth stages, supporting prices. Low river levels can raise barge freight costs and slow grain movement.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.