
The U.S. Drought Monitor shows 23% of the Midwest in drought as of late April 2024, with Iowa having the greatest extent at 58% of the state. Long-term precipitation deficits over the past four years persist across parts of Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Missouri and Indiana, and soil moisture, streamflow and groundwater are below normal in several states.
Lingering subsoil and groundwater deficits raise the risk of yield losses if summer turns hot and dry, which could support corn and soybean prices and feed grain costs.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.