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The U.S. Drought Monitor showed 43% of the Midwest in drought, with Extreme Drought in Iowa and parts of Missouri. Mississippi River water levels were below normal and were expected to keep falling through December, with a risk of ice formation on the Upper Mississippi.
A strong El Niño was developing and expected to bring warmer, drier winter conditions to the Midwest.
Low river levels raise barge freight costs and can limit grain movement on the Mississippi, supporting prices for Midwest corn and soybeans. Persistent dryness also adds uncertainty for the next crop.
drought.govDec 7, 2023After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
