Loading…
Eric Snodgrass estimates about a 60% chance of some Corn Belt drought during the upcoming season, based on four precursor factors. He notes good yields are still possible if drought develops slowly and temperatures stay mild.
He says the evolution of soil moisture by June will be a key market driver.
A roughly 60% drought probability keeps a weather premium in corn and soybean prices and raises the importance of summer moisture for feed costs.
farmweeknow.comRHIANNON BRANCH FarmWeekFeb 13, 2025After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
