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Argentine farmers are planning to expand soybean plantings to about 17 million hectares from 16.3 million, the first increase since 2015. They are switching from corn because fertilizer costs rose sharply after Russia's invasion of Ukraine and corn is the bigger drought risk.
A shift from corn to soybeans raises future soybean meal and oil supply from the largest meal exporter while reducing corn planting, a bearish soy outlook and a supportive one for corn.
bloomberglinea.comJonathan GilbertSep 22, 2022After 363 past bearish weather events, Soybeans moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -2.5% to +1.1%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 118 past bearish weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.8% over 5 sessions (35% higher; middle half -3.2% to +0.4%), and -1.6% over 20.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
