
Hot, dry conditions with only 25% to 30% of normal rainfall have persisted for over six weeks across central Brazil, including Mato Grosso. About 30% of the soybean crop was still unplanted, and some farmers were questioning whether they would plant the safrinha corn crop.
Losing the second corn crop would cut Brazilian corn exports later in the marketing year, supporting corn prices and the wider feed complex.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.