Agrural said Brazil's soybean harvest was 15% complete, versus 31% a year earlier, the slowest mid-February pace in ten years. Safrinha corn planting in the Centre-South reached 24% as of February 18, well behind the 51% of 2020.
Rain-delayed harvest and late second-crop corn planting constrain export logistics and raise risk to safrinha yields, supporting corn and soybean prices.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, CORN moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, SOY moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.