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Brazil's soybean harvest is running behind, at 3.9% complete versus 10.8% a year earlier, with Mato Grosso at 4.3% against 21.5%. Early yields are good but below expectations, and traders are concerned about quality if heavy rain returns as beans mature.
Harvest delays and possible quality problems could slow Brazilian export flows and firm soybean prices if wet weather persists.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.