
As of June 24, the Drought Monitor showed 49% of the U.S. under abnormal dryness or drought, up three points for the week. USDA put drought coverage at 16% of corn area, 12% of soybeans and 25% of spring wheat, with the driest Corn Belt areas in Nebraska and South Dakota.
A shrinking drought footprint on corn and soybean areas eases yield risk and weighs mildly on futures. Dryness remaining in Nebraska and South Dakota keeps some weather premium in the market.
After 357 past bearish weather events, Corn moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 363 past bearish weather events, Soybeans moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -2.5% to +1.1%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.