
Pro Farmer scouts found minimal weather-related problems across seven states, with only isolated drought in Ohio, hail in southern Nebraska and issues in Minnesota. Drought covered less than 10% of corn and soybean area in June through August.
Little drought stress keeps crop condition risk low, which removes weather premium and supports bearish price pressure on corn and soybeans.
After 357 past bearish weather events, Corn moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 363 past bearish weather events, Soybeans moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -2.5% to +1.1%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.