
The July 28 Drought Monitor showed 67.9% of the US in abnormal dryness or drought, with 29% of corn acres, 26% of soybean acres and 42% of spring wheat acres in drought. Spring wheat saw its largest weekly drought increase since 2018, with hot, dry Plains weather worsening stress.
Expanding drought over corn, soybean and spring wheat areas tightens expected supply and supports prices, especially if heat persists into August.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, CORN moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, SOY moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, WHEAT moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.