Drought Likely to Worsen in Northern Plains, Patches of Midwest

After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.

• Jun 30, 2017Wheat futures rally amid worsening drought in the Northern Plains+1.3%
• Feb 22, 2021Continued Plains, Western Midwest Drought Expected+0.7%
• Jul 28, 2021Wheat climbs on signs of drought damage in northern U.S. Plains | Financial Post+2.7%
• May 10, 2021Drought Status Update for the Northern Great Plains | May 10, 2021 | Drought.gov+3.5%
• Jul 30, 2026Northern Plains see drought expand following hot weather - Pro Farmer-1.3%

Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.

After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.

• Jun 22, 2017Northern Plains drought intensifies-2.7%
• Feb 22, 2021Continued Plains, Western Midwest Drought Expected+1.6%
• Jul 28, 2021Wheat climbs on signs of drought damage in northern U.S. Plains | Financial Post+0.3%
• Aug 4, 2017Northern Plains drought shows why revenue protection belongs in plan-1.9%
• Mar 27, 2025Scientists expect more drought this year in parts of the Midwest and Great Plains | NPR Illinois+0.3%