
Meteorologist Kevin Marcus outlined weather impacts on the US, South American and Chinese growing seasons. He noted that warm, dry September and October weather in the Midwest mirrors 2024, and that the eastern Corn Belt may have lost yield to prolonged heat with very warm nights in July and August.
Heat-related yield losses in key corn areas tighten supply expectations, though the impact depends on final harvest results.
After 445 past neutral weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 324 past neutral weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.7%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.