
Grain futures ended lower on August 4 on profit taking after strong Monday closes, while livestock rose. USDA corn ratings fell to 61% good to excellent, down 2% on the week and 12% on the year.
Recent rains and cooler weather weighed on prices, and disease risk such as tar spot is emerging in Indiana.
Declining crop ratings put the record crop estimate in question ahead of the August 12 WASDE, which supports corn prices, though rain and profit taking are offsetting near term.
After 445 past neutral weather events, CORN moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 324 past neutral weather events, SOY moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.7%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 80 past bullish weather events, LCATTLE moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -0.8% to +1.3%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.