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WeatherTiger's July 2017 outlook expects the Pacific to remain in neutral ENSO conditions for the next six months, with the Nino3.4 anomaly at about +0.6C. It notes that the June monthly anomaly of +0.4C sat just below the El Niño threshold.
A persistent neutral pattern implies no major El Niño-driven weather shock to crops in the coming months, so supply risk premiums in grains and oilseeds are unlikely to build from ENSO alone.
weathertiger.comPosted By: WeatherTiger CzarJul 12, 2017After 445 past neutral weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 324 past neutral weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.7%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
