2026 Weather Outlook: La Niña’s Quick Exit, El Niño’s Potential and the Signals Farmers Should Watch

After 357 past bearish weather events, Corn moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and -0.5% over 20.

• Aug 27, 2025La Nada, No Problem: Weather Outlook for 2025 Harvest and Beyond - Farmer Mac+3.6%
• Mar 22, 2019vDouglas: Weather outlooks shows continued El Niño around the world – Wyoming Livestock Roundup-1.9%
• Dec 22, 2017Ag Weather Forum: Favorable South America Rain Outlook | La Niña Ready Nations+0.1%
• Apr 21, 2023As El Niño Makes Its Grand Return, Here's What It Tells Us About Summer Weather and Corn Yields - AgWeb-1.6%
• Jun 4, 2026Corn and soybeans extend losses as favorable crop weather improves outlook-2.5%

After 363 past bearish weather events, Soybeans moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -2.5% to +1.1%), and -0.2% over 20.

• Aug 27, 2025La Nada, No Problem: Weather Outlook for 2025 Harvest and Beyond - Farmer Mac-1.2%
• Mar 22, 2019vDouglas: Weather outlooks shows continued El Niño around the world – Wyoming Livestock Roundup-2.3%
• Dec 12, 2025La Niña Is Fading: What It Means for South American Crop Potential - AgWeb-3.8%
• Dec 22, 2017Ag Weather Forum: Favorable South America Rain Outlook | La Niña Ready Nations+0.3%
• Nov 7, 2025Wet Argentine farmland offsets drier La Nina outlook | Reuters+3.7%