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The WMO update estimates a 65% chance of ENSO-neutral conditions for December 2019 through February 2020, with 30% odds of El Niño and 5% of La Niña. Sea surface temperatures are expected to return to near-average levels after November and stay neutral into the first half of 2020.
A neutral outlook reduces the likelihood of a strong weather shock to Southeast Asian palm oil, Australian wheat or South American crops, so no major supply premium is implied from ENSO alone.
reliefweb.intNov 29, 2019After 19 past neutral weather events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -0.4% to +1.1%), and +2.4% over 20.
After 224 past neutral weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.5%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
