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Gro Intelligence analysis says La Niña's expected exit should lift Southeast Asian palm oil output in 2023. Yields could then fall in 2024 as drier conditions follow La Niña and possible El Niño develops.
Indonesia and Malaysia together supply about 85% of world palm oil, and palm prices have fallen more than 40% from their May 2022 peak.
Near-term supply is expected to improve, which is bearish for palm oil, but a 2024 drop in output could support prices later. This mixed outlook points to renewed volatility in palm oil and related vegetable oil markets.
ukragroconsult.comFeb 21, 2023After 19 past neutral weather events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -0.4% to +1.1%), and +2.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
