
Analysts forecast Malaysian palm oil futures will trade between 3,500 and 5,000 ringgit per tonne in early 2023, with prices expected to decline from 2022 levels. Indonesian output for 2023 is projected at 51-52 million tonnes, below earlier estimates, partly due to La Niña and high fertilizer costs.
Lower projected Indonesian output from La Niña and reduced fertilizer use would tighten supply, but the forecast for falling prices reflects weaker demand. The net effect is a mixed price outlook.
After 19 past neutral weather events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -0.4% to +1.1%), and +2.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.