The Solvent Extractors' Association of India reports a forecast of normal monsoon rainfall for 2024 at 106% of the long period average. The association expects good conditions for kharif sowing from June and backs government goals for edible oil self-sufficiency.
A normal monsoon improves the outlook for Indian oilseed output, which can ease import demand for edible oils and soymeal over time. The effect on prices is gradual and depends on actual rainfall.
After 19 past neutral weather events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -0.4% to +1.1%), and +2.4% over 20.
After 55 past neutral weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.5%), and +0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.