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The IRI June climate briefing reports that sea-surface temperatures in the central equatorial Pacific (Nino3.4) stayed at borderline neutral-to-weak El Niño levels of +0.4°C to +0.6°C. Atmospheric and sub-surface indicators remained near average, so no El Niño event is yet present.
Falling El Niño odds point to a lower risk of drought in Australia, Southeast Asia and India, which supports stable palm oil, grain and oilseed supply. The price impact is modest because the signal is still weak.
iri.columbia.eduJun 19, 2017After 19 past neutral weather events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -0.4% to +1.1%), and +2.4% over 20.
After 224 past neutral weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.5%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
