
Palm oil output in Indonesia and Malaysia is expected to decline in Q1 2018 due to seasonal rains that disrupt harvests and lower oil extraction rates. Output is then projected to rebound after mid-year to record highs, according to industry sources.
Benchmark prices rose 2.7% in February after three monthly declines.
Seasonal Q1 output dip supports near-term palm prices, but the expected mid-year production rebound to records could pressure prices later in the year.
After 19 past neutral weather events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -0.4% to +1.1%), and +2.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.