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DTN meteorologist John Baranick reports that the Climate Forecast System expects ENSO to move from La Niña into neutral conditions through spring and summer 2023. He expects a more variable weather pattern across North America once La Niña loses its grip.
A move to neutral weather in the US summer reduces the risk of drought in key growing areas, which is generally bearish for corn and soybean prices. Weather-driven volatility could still increase.
dtnpf.comJohn BaranickFeb 1, 2023After 445 past neutral weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 324 past neutral weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.7%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
