
A DTN meteorologist reports that precipitation over the past 60 days was more than 4 inches below average on his Minnesota farm, with subsoil moisture short across much of the Corn Belt. Upper-air pattern changes could bring some relief to dry areas in late October or early November.
Expected rain relief would reduce the drought risk premium on corn and soybeans, though soil moisture deficits ahead of winter remain a concern.
After 445 past neutral weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 324 past neutral weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.7%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.