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A University of Oklahoma researcher writes that the South Pacific points to a weak, Central Pacific type El Niño forming this year, citing an NOAA estimate of a 70% chance of El Niño this winter. The post argues this flavor matters for predicting regional impacts.
A weaker Central Pacific El Niño would likely bring smaller drought risk than a strong event, limiting the upside in grain and oilseed prices from weather alone.
climate.govJason FurtadoJul 27, 2018After 445 past neutral weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 324 past neutral weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.7%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
