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The Illinois State Climatologist summarizes the NWS first-half 2018 outlook, which expects La Niña to fade in spring into ENSO-neutral conditions. Illinois is forecast to see a higher chance of above-normal precipitation in February and February-March-April, with a higher chance of below-normal temperatures in spring.
Wetter conditions could ease existing Illinois moisture deficits, which is mildly bearish for corn and soybean weather premiums, although flooding risk remains.
stateclimatologist.web.illinois.eduJim AngelJan 18, 2018After 445 past neutral weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 324 past neutral weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.7%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
