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University of Chicago researchers argue that massive crop failures comparable to the 1930s Dust Bowl are inevitable, and that a future dust bowl could be even more damaging to crops. The article is a commentary on long-term drought risk rather than a current event.
The claim is speculative and long-term, so it does not change current supply or demand, though it may add modest risk premium sentiment for grains.
fishfarmingexpert.comAndrew HoyleMar 9, 2017
producer.comadminMar 9, 2017After 224 past neutral weather events, WHEAT moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.5%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 445 past neutral weather events, CORN moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
