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Brazil has lowered its wheat crop forecast and raised its import estimate because El Niño is affecting grain quality. The report gives no further figures in the available text.
A smaller Brazilian crop and higher imports add demand for wheat from exporters such as Argentina, the US and the Black Sea, supporting wheat prices.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.