
USDA reduced its 2026/27 U.S. corn production estimate by 141 million bushels and ending stocks by 91 million bushels, while lowering projected use. Soybean production rose by 12 million bushels, but ending stocks fell by 15 million as exports increased by 25 million.
USDA raised its 2026/27 corn production estimates for Brazil and Argentina by 2 million tonnes each; South American soybean production estimates were unchanged.
The lower U.S. corn output and soybean stocks support prices, with stronger soybean export projections adding demand. Higher South American corn production and reduced U.S. corn use partly offset the tighter U.S. supply outlook.
After 138 past bearish report events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.9% to +2.4%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 40 past report events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 273 past bearish report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -1.3% to +0.4%), and -1.4% over 20.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.