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USDA's September supply-demand report raised 2025 and 2026 US milk production forecasts and cut most dairy price forecasts, including 2025 butter to $2.36/lb (down 16 cents). CME spot Grade AA butter fell below $2.00/lb for the first time since December 2021.
Higher milk output paired with lower product price forecasts signals a weaker dairy market, pressuring milk and by-product values that feed into feed-ingredient pricing.
cheesereporter.comSep 12, 2025After 273 past bearish report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -1.3% to +0.4%), and -1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
