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USDA's October supply-demand estimates cut 2026 milk production by 300 million pounds to 236.9 billion and 2027 by 200 million to 238.4 billion, citing lower cow inventories and output per cow. Cheese and butter price forecasts were lowered for both years while nonfat dry milk and dry whey forecasts were raised, and the 2026 Class III forecast fell 40 cents to $15.80.
Lower milk output forecasts tighten the protein and milk solids balance, but weaker cheese and butter prices point to softer Class III and feed-buying power for dairy producers, so the net price signal is mixed.
cheesereporter.comOct 9, 2026
thelandonline.comLee MielkeOct 23, 2026After 273 past bearish report events, MILK moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -1.3% to +0.4%), and -1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
