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USDA raised its 2026 U.S. milk production forecast by 300 million pounds to 234.3 billion on higher output per cow, and kept its 2025 estimate at 231.4 billion. It cut 2026 butter and cheese price forecasts while raising nonfat dry milk and dry whey forecasts.
The Class III price for 2026 was lowered by 70 cents to $16.35/cwt.
A larger U.S. milk supply and lower Class III forecasts point to lower dairy prices, while higher protein price forecasts offer some support for whey and milk-protein inputs.
cheesereporter.comdebbieJan 16, 2026After 273 past bearish report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -1.3% to +0.4%), and -1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
