
USDA raised its 2025 milk production forecast by 500 million pounds to 227.8 billion and its 2026 forecast by 300 million pounds to 228.2 billion. It also raised most 2025 and 2026 dairy product price forecasts, including cheese at $1.86 per pound for 2025 and butter at $2.535.
Higher milk output forecasts point to more supply for feed and dairy markets, while raised price forecasts reflect firmer product demand. Buyers of dairy-linked feed should watch for supply growth offsetting price strength.
After 273 past bearish report events, MILK moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -1.3% to +0.4%), and -1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.