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In its July WASDE, USDA raised its 2025 US milk production forecast by 500 million pounds to 228.3 billion and its 2026 forecast by 900 million pounds to 229.1 billion. It also raised butter, nonfat dry milk and dry whey price forecasts, while lowering the cheese forecast by 2 cents to $1.84/lb.
The increases reflect higher cow inventories and faster growth in milk per cow.
A larger projected milk supply weighs on dairy prices, though higher butter and powder forecasts partly offset that for processors and feed buyers.
cheesereporter.comdebbieJul 11, 2025After 273 past bearish report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -1.3% to +0.4%), and -1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
