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USDA's November supply-demand report raised its 2025 milk production forecast by 1.4 billion pounds to 31.4 billion and its 2026 forecast by 3.0 billion pounds to 234.4 billion. It cut most dairy product price forecasts, including butter to $2.22 per pound and cheese to $1.805, and lowered the 2025 Class III price to $18.15 per cwt.
Higher milk supply with lower product prices points to weaker dairy returns and softer milk prices for buyers. Dry whey was the exception, with its price forecast raised on strong demand.
cheesereporter.comkellerNov 14, 2025After 273 past bearish report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -1.3% to +0.4%), and -1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
