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Conab forecasts Brazil's 2022/23 grain season could be the largest on record, with soybean output up 21.2% and corn up 9.4% from last season's drought-hit levels. Planted acreage is projected to rise 2.5%, with yields recovering about 17% for soybeans and 6% for corn.
A larger Brazilian crop and expected export growth, especially to China, add supply that tends to pressure soybean and corn prices. A weaker real encouraging more planting reinforces that bearish supply outlook.
sites.udel.eduSep 2, 2022After 788 past bearish report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 1,102 past bearish report events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 399 past bearish report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.2%), and -1.0% over 20.
After 40 past report events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
