
Pro Farmer estimated the 2022 U.S. corn crop at 13.759 billion bushels on a 168.1 bu/acre average yield and the soybean crop at 4.535 billion bushels on 51.7 bu/acre. The estimates followed the Crop Tour and an upward adjustment of 500,000 soybean acres based on FSA data.
State yields showed Iowa and Illinois at 198 bu/acre, while Nebraska was hurt by heat, drought and hail at 164 bu/acre.
Pro Farmer's corn estimate sits well below USDA's 175.4 bu/acre, signaling tighter corn supplies and firmer prices. The soybean estimate is slightly above USDA, a modestly bearish offset for soy.
After 1,040 past bullish report events, CORN moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 788 past bearish report events, SOY moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 250 past neutral report events, SBM moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.