
The American Soybean Association reports that USDA's August report raised the 2026 US soybean crop projection to a record on a larger-than-expected acreage increase. Soybean futures rose about 1.1% after the report, and USDA increased 2025/26 and 2026/27 crush volumes on strong margins and high oil prices.
A record crop is bearish for prices, but expanded crush demand to process it absorbs supply and supports meal output for feed buyers.
After 563 past neutral report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.1% over 20.
After 250 past neutral report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 296 past bullish report events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.8% to +2.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.