
USDA's April 2025 Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade report says Brazil's rising domestic biodiesel use is restricting soybean oil exports, with exports seen at about 1.3 million tons despite record production near 12 million tons. Brazil kept its biodiesel blend at 14% rather than raising it to 15%, and China's 2024/25 rapeseed imports were revised up to 4 million tons.
Tighter Brazilian soybean oil exports support global vegetable oil prices and make palm and rapeseed oil relatively more competitive, while a larger crush supports meal supply.
After 296 past bullish report events, SBO moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.8% to +2.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 149 past bullish report events, PALMOIL moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.8%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 250 past neutral report events, SBM moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.