
The EIA reports that biodiesel now uses about 30% of US soybean oil consumption, up from about 15% in 2010/11. Soybean oil use for biodiesel reached 3.2 million tonnes in 2017/18, and the increase was driven largely by the Renewable Fuel Standard.
The EIA also notes that crush margins were near record highs when China imposed its 25% tariff in July 2018.
Biodiesel is now a major outlet for soybean oil, so changes in biofuel mandates directly shift oil demand and the crush economics that also determine soybean meal supply.
After 296 past bullish report events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.8% to +2.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 250 past neutral report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.