
USDA's January 14, 2025 Oil Crops Outlook cut US soybean production by 95 million bushels to 4.36 billion, on lower yields and harvested acreage. Domestic ending stocks were forecast at 380 million bushels, down 90 million from the prior month, while global oilseed crush rose 2.1 million tonnes.
A smaller US crop and tighter ending stocks support soybean prices, and higher global crush increases meal and oil output that shapes feed and oil pricing.
After 747 past bullish report events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 250 past neutral report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 114 past neutral report events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.4%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.